Arbitrage. Steam. Middles. +EV. Line Shopping. CLV. Promos. Paid Discords.
Use more acronyms. Sprinkle in some AI and ML claims. Sell to hopeful gamblers who want easy riches. How could it be any easier? W/L record is good, but picking -600 favorites every time and only hitting at 55% of the time means you'll go broke in short order. Everyone wants to make money, and every tool or tout promise glorious riches, but if that is the case, why are they selling shovels instead of mining themselves?
There are dozens of tools that claim to be +EV, but hardly any actually provide evidence of such via historical ROI or consensus results tracking.
-me, as I write
Simplified, the objective of positive expected value betting is to have a ROI over 1. All of the buzzwords are either independent functions or components of a strategy that has a positive ROI. In today's post, I go over some of the more popular strategies that are commonly employed in attempts to achieve positive EV.
What really is EV?
EV=∑P(Xi)×Xi
The expected value is the sum (the sqiggly "E", or Sigma) of all probabilities (P*Xi) of a given event and their expected payouts(the last Xi).
What this boils down to is how do you accurately come up with probabilities of an event occurring. Assume you are in a vacuum and the actual chances of the Cincinnati Reds winning are +130 moneyline, that means their implied probability of winning is 43.5%. If you can find a book that offers odds higher than +130, then you can make a +EV wager. Whether or not a team is favored does not matter, you are looking to be able to capitalize on the ability to forecast the outcomes of an event more accurately than your counter-party accepting your wager.
Sharp Books
Without going too far into the weeds, some books are better at pricing events and price discovery. Those who are earlier to post odds and have less difference between their opening odds and closing odds are viewed as sharp. For example, if you know that Pinnacle is the sharpest book for MLB, then you should be able to find books who offer higher odds than Pinnacle's and bet the square book, expecting a profit over a large enough sample size.
A Detour to the Casino
Confused? You should be. Sportsbooks are counting on it. American odds are nonsensical. What does +125 even actually mean? Let's backtrack and look at a simpler scenario for a traditional game– Roulette.
There are 36 alternating color numbers 1-36 (red/black) on a roulette wheel. There are anywhere from 1 to 3 green 0/00/000 on the wheel. This means there are 38 total numbers including the 0/00. If you wager on any single number, the payout is 35-1 (2.86%). There are 38 numbers (2.63%).
To calculated the expected value, you sum up these probabilities and payouts:
- 1/38 times, you win and are paid 35-1. (1/38 * 35) = 0.9211
- 37/38 times, you lose your wager, -1. (37/38) * -1 = -0.9737
You sum the probabilities of the 1/38 and 37/38 events, and get -0.0526. Multiply it by 100 and you will see the expected value of a double zero roulette wheel is -5.26%. So on average you will lose 5.2 cents for every dollar wagered.
Chasing Steam/Sharps
Chasing steam is looking for books that are slow to update their odds relative to other books, especially sharp books who are better at price discovery. The concept is to identify books who may not be adjusting their odds as quickly as the market based on news or metadata.
Arbitrage
Arb is probably the biggest trend in the +EV sports betting segment– why wouldn't it be? It is essentially guaranteed profit, since you're wagering on both sides. It is also dead simple to understand, even with American odds. If it is a boolean outcome, and the odds of both sides add up to > 0, then it is +EV.
Middles
Middles are wagering on two different lines, ideally with favorable odds, and having a scenario where a small percentage of the time, both sides of the wager win.
Modeling & Tissue Odds
Building your own models is probably the most exciting, albeit involved, way to try and find an edge. The name of the game is identifying specific angles that correlate to a game's outcome.
Other Concepts
Line Shopping – If you like the Pelicans moneyline at -250, you would surely like them at -225, right? Line shopping is simply comparing which books offer the best odds for the wagers you plan on making.
Bonuses/promos – The modern as-seen-on-TV books use a lot of promotions with mechanics similar to slot machines. The key for shopping bonuses is to redeem/claim the bonus, then return to your normal behavior of focusing on getting the best line/odds.
Where to now?
I don't know. That's your problem. But now you have a general idea of things that can help facilitate +EV betting.
Ideas or suggestions for future posts? Email me directly at [email protected].